摘要：ThecryptoPortugueseassociationNewEconomyInstitute,formedbyprominentmembersofthePortuguesecryptocommunity,hashighlightedthemajordifferenceswithineachpoliticalparty...
葡萄牙大选投票于 2024 年 3 月 10 日上午开始，距离标志着萨拉查独裁统治结束的康乃馨革命50 周年仅剩一个月。
此次选举标志着葡萄牙政治格局的重大转变。
2022年，前总理安东尼奥·科斯塔取得历史性胜利，以41.37%的选票获得议会绝对多数。中左翼社会党（PS）获得了统治国家的绿灯，无需组建联盟。
然而，社会主义政府充斥着腐败和丑闻，导致包括总理科斯塔在内的多人辞职。这些事件迫使共和国总统要求举行新的选举，并动摇了社会党在葡萄牙政坛的霸权。
Consulmark2 的最新民意调查显示，选举结果势均力敌。
大多数受访者（近 30%）支持候选人路易斯·蒙特内格罗（Luis Montenegro）领导的新的中左翼联盟民主联盟（AD）。不过，虽然 AD 可能在民意调查中领先，但仅略高于 PS 的 Pedro Nuno Santos 的 27%。
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这一势均力敌的地位对于新成立的右翼政党Chega（拥有18.2%的选票）来说是独一无二的。创始人安德烈·文图拉很快就利用了人们对执政党葡萄牙社会党的不满，并将自己宣传为葡萄牙人民的政党。
在较低范围内，中右翼自由倡议党（IL）（6%）、左翼左翼联盟（BE）（5.2%）、生态社会主义者利夫尔（4.6%）和共产主义统一民主联盟（CDU）（2.5%）可能有机会作为联盟的一部分影响政府。
自 2016 年以来，葡萄牙就以对加密货币友好而闻名于世。其独特的税收制度和法规使该国成为加密用户和区块链公司的全球中心。
采取不同政策的新政府如何影响葡萄牙作为数字资产中心（欧洲为数不多的加密货币热点之一）的地位？
葡萄牙选举可能会改变加密货币友好政策
Portuguese political parties are unique in that all national parties have included cryptocurrency positions in their electoral programs.
The crypto Portuguese association New Economy Institute, formed by prominent members of the Portuguese crypto community, has highlighted the major differences within each political party.
The most crypto-friendly group is the novel political party Chega, which in its updated program for 2024, expressed its intention to solidify Portugal’s status as a global crypto hub. The party says it wants to expand the adoption of blockchain technology with real use cases at the institutional level.
Their proposal claims they will “invest in technology education starting in primary education with introductory courses on the digital economy, specifically cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, programming and blockchain.” They also want to include coding and blockchain in school curriculums.
The center-right AD has a similar stance, but they only wish to introduce coding in the national education program to position Portugal within the top 10 countries in digitalization in Europe by 2030; there is no mention of blockchain.
Chega also intends to “study the possibility of the state using blockchain technology to drastically reduce bureaucracy and administrative complexity and ensure greater transparency.”
The right-wing party mentioned blockchain would be useful in different fields, from administrative improvements such as property and land registration to a digital identity managed by blockchain technology.
Additionally, Chega advocates for using blockchain technology for administrative procedures such as licenses and certifications as a way of addressing Portugal’s complex bureaucratic system, which, in their opinion, is deliberately generated to hide corruption.
Socialist PS has already enabled crypto-friendly policies and wants to resume its Web3 national strategy initiated by former Secretary of State, who joined the government after leaving Microsoft in 2019 — The project was halted in December 2023 after the resignation of Prime Minster Costa.
The principal political parties have a neutral or friendly policy for cryptocurrency and blockchain regulation, which should be good news for crypto advocates living in Portugal.
But some of the smaller players, with whom the winning party may have to form a coalition in order to make a government, feel differently.
The New Economy Institute highlights how an alliance between PS, BE, and CDU may push the socialist party to ditch its existing crypto-friendly regime, as the latter parties are more hostile to digital assets.
As the New Economy Institute noted, the BE’s program specifies how they would like to tax “all crypto asset-related gains currently exempt” under Portugal’s Personal Income Taxation regime. The left-wing party also wants to create a “mandatory reporting system for the value of one’s cryptocurrency holdings and all crypto transactions,” including crypto-to-crypto, fiat and acquiring goods and services.
But this hinges on whether BE would have sufficient power to force socialist PS to remove the crypto-friendly policies in Portugal. This outcome may not be as probable as PS candidate Nuno Santos declared in a televised debate that they would let AD govern in minority to ensure that ultra-right Chega doesn’t get a seat in government.
AD’s Montenegro has neither confirmed nor denied if they would ally with Chega to form a government. If the possibility of a government with Chega and AD emerges, PS may feel forced to search for a broader coalition with the left, which could potentially harm crypto-friendly policies.
Effects on the Portuguese crypto community
Continuity in crypto legislation would have a positive outcome for the Portuguese crypto community, Henrique Corrêa, the president of New Economy Institute, told Cointelegraph.
The only result that could be detrimental to the crypto community would be if BE entered the government. As polls have demonstrated, there is a small probability this could occur.
However, what would happen to Portugal if the crypto-friendly policies were modified to a more restrictive approach?
For Portuguese-based crypto influencer Sebastian Montgomery, the sudden removal of the special fiscal regime for digital nomads would drastically increase his tax rate. While the tax regime wasn’t the sole motivator for his move to Portugal, it played a strong role.
If crypto-related policies change drastically, he said he would consider leaving.
But the crypto industry is very location-agnostic and can move easily, as Mitchell Loureiro, CEO of Immunefi, explained to Cointelegraph:
“The crypto industry is very mobile and can leave easily if the terms turn unfavorable. Many other countries will welcome them in a heartbeat. They can easily leave and take away the economy they created here, along with the jobs they created.”
The Portuguese Web3 ecosystem has thrived in the last years with over 650 companies in Portugal, as per the Portuguese Web3 association Quo Vadis records. Despite Portugal having one of the most attractive crypto-friendly legislations in the world, it ranks 58th worldwide for crypto adoption, according to a 2023 Chainalysis study.
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Corrêa da Silva 表示，葡萄牙拥有独特的机会通过采用加密货币创造可持续的世代财富。他将当前时刻与大约 500 年前葡萄牙的黄金时代进行了比较，当时国王和精英们意识到，发展的唯一途径是采用技术创新和知识。
这一认识增强了葡萄牙海军探索世界的能力，这得益于其创新的武器装备以及在数学科学、天文学、航海、地理和潮汐研究方面的优势。
Corrêa da Silva 表示，现在要探索的新海洋位于数字世界。他相信葡萄牙可以通过输出尖端技术和专业知识再次成为国际主要参与者，甚至说服居住在海外的葡萄牙人才返回葡萄牙。不过，他表示，要实现这一切，行业需要稳定下来并走向成熟。
在这次选举中，葡萄牙政治社会的未来以及建立和巩固数字资产中心的可能性都受到威胁。
